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ABSTRACT The origin of the radio synchrotron background (RSB) is currently unknown. Its understanding might have profound implications in fundamental physics or might reveal a new class of radio emitters. In this work, we consider the scenario in which the RSB is due to extragalactic radio sources and measure the angular cross-correlation of Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) images of the diffuse radio sky with matter tracers at different redshifts, provided by galaxy catalogues and cosmic microwave background lensing. We compare these measured cross-correlations to those expected for models of RSB sources. We find that low-redshift populations of discrete sources are excluded by the data, while higher redshift explanations are compatible with available observations. We also conclude that at least 20 per cent of the RSB surface brightness level must originate from populations tracing the large-scale distribution of matter in the Universe, indicating that at least this fraction of the RSB is of extragalactic origin. Future measurements of the correlation between the RSB and tracers of high-redshift sources will be crucial to constraining the source population of the RSB. 

Abstract CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5 σ , or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.